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economic uncertainty and leadership

What Americans Are Really Worried About and What Smart Leaders Should Do About It

Mary Kelly Leadership Economist | Keynote Speaker | Conference & Training Programs

Last month I had two conferences cancel their entire events, citing uncertainty as their reason. Of course, we immediately refunded their deposits and asked how we could help. They said people are just feeling too worried to focus, so they are postponing it for 6-9months later, when they believe people will be better able to benefit from the conference.

A recent survey from Pew Research Center confirms what many business leaders, employees, customers, and families know: Americans are feeling worried about global unrest, the cost of living, the affordability of health care, inflation, and polarizing politics.

According to Pew’s May 2026 report:

  • 73% of Americans say the affordability of health care is a “very big problem”
  • 66% say inflation remains a major concern
  • 64% are worried about the federal budget deficit

This is not an economics story; it is a leadership story.

When people are feeling uncertain, employees, customers, investors, and families behave differently.

Leaders who fail to understand that reality will struggle to keep good people, maintain productivity, and grow profitable organizations.

Financial Stress Changes Human Behavior

Economists have known for decades that uncertainty changes decision-making. When people feel financially squeezed, they become more cautious, more distracted, and more emotionally reactive.

That means your employees are not walking into work as blank slates every morning.

They are walking in worried about:

  • prescription costs
  • insurance deductibles
  • grocery bills
  • aging parents
  • child care
  • mortgage rates
  • credit card debt
  • retirement savings

And now, according to Pew, health care costs have surpassed even inflation as one of the nation’s top concerns. That should get every employer’s attention.

Because when employees are stressed financially, organizations pay the price through: lower engagement, higher absenteeism, higher turnover, poor communication, decision fatigue, burnout, and declining productivity.

Leaders often assume people leave jobs because of salary alone, but that is not true. People leave because they no longer believe their organization understands the pressure they are under, and that means bringing people together more often, to share focused intentionality is even more important.

The New Leadership Reality

Leadership is tougher now because the variables are multiplying. Twenty years ago, many employees worried primarily about job stability.

Today they worry about: whether AI will replace them, whether they can keep up with changing technology, with changing regulations, and being out of sight with remote work.

That creates a workforce carrying a heavier emotional and cognitive load than many leaders realize. And yet many organizations are still leading as if it were 2015.

The best leaders understand that uncertainty requires more communication, not less.

More clarity. More transparency. More consistency. More vision.

People want to know:
Where are we going?
Are we financially stable?
What is the plan?
What role do I play?
How do we win together?

When people lack clarity, they create their own narratives, and those narratives are usually worse than reality.

The Health Care Wake-Up Call

Background: When the ACA was proposed, the costs were higher than most people could afford, so in 2014 they started the program with temporary subsidies, which most beneficiaries did not realize were temporary. Apparently, people thought the costs they were paying were the actual costs. They were not.
Here is a timeline from HealthCare.gov:

Original ACA health insurance subsidies first began on January 1, 2014, when the health insurance marketplaces (exchanges) were launched under the Affordable Care Act.

These original subsidies were available to individuals and families with household incomes between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level. Since 2014, the subsidy structure has been expanded several times.

2021 Expansion: The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) temporarily increased the amount of financial assistance and expanded eligibility to higher-income earners.2022 Extension: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) extended these enhanced, larger subsidies.2026 Expiration: These temporary, enhanced COVID-era subsidies expired on December 31, 2025. Consequently, the subsidy system reverted to the original 2014 style structure.

Because of that, health care has become one of the largest financial stressors in America.

Employees increasingly evaluate jobs not just on salary, but on: health benefits, flexibility, mental health support, stability, predictable schedules, and long-term security. Smart organizations are responding by recognizing that compensation is broader than wages alone.

The organizations attracting and keeping talent are asking:

  • How do we reduce unnecessary stress?
  • How do we make work more sustainable?
  • How do we help employees feel financially and emotionally secure?

This does not mean businesses should become social service agencies, but it does mean leaders must understand economic reality if they expect people to perform at high levels.

The Deficit Matters More Than Many Realize

One of the more interesting findings in the Pew data is the rising concern over the federal deficit.

Why?

Because Americans intuitively understand something economists have warned about for years: eventually, debt creates consequences.

Whether through higher taxes, higher interest rates, reduced government services, inflationary pressures, or lower growth, people know the bill eventually comes due.

As a leadership economist, I advise businesses to pay attention because deficits, inflation, and borrowing costs directly affect expansion plans, hiring, consumer spending, financing, real estate, retirement accounts, and capital investment.

Leaders cannot afford economic illiteracy anymore. Economic awareness is now a leadership competency.

What Great Leaders Do Differently

The best leaders do not panic during uncertainty. They create stability inside uncertainty.

They communicate clearly, explain the mission repeatedly, help people prioritize, reduce unnecessary friction, increase trust, develop future leaders, make faster decisions, and focus on what they can control.

Most importantly, they recognize that people need both hope and a plan. Hope without strategy creates frustration. Strategy without hope creates exhaustion. Strong leadership requires both.

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