America Does not Have a Recession Problem — It Has a Succession Problem, and What to Do About It
By Dr. Mary C. Kelly, Leadership Economist and Hall of Fame Speaker
Across industries, leaders are hesitating. Hiring freezes, delayed promotions, and postponed expansion plans are the norm. The justification? They are worried about uncertainty in the economy.
“We’re being cautious.”
But the truth is, America does not have a recession problem, it has a succession problem.
Caution Is Costly
Caution in hiring feels safe, but it often masks a deeper issue: a lack of confidence in internal succession pipelines. Many organizations are not struggling because the economy is weak — they are struggling because they do not have the right people ready to step up when opportunities arise.
The real economic danger is not inflation or interest rates, it is indecision. When leaders delay hiring, they lose momentum, market share, and morale. The cost of waiting almost always exceeds the cost of hiring strategically.
How Do You Know it is Time to Hire?
It is simple:
You hire when you do not have the time or the skill set to get the work done.
If your team is consistently in catch-up mode, if key initiatives are stalled, or if you find yourself saying, “I just need one more good person,” then you already know the answer. You are short on time, short on capability, and short on capacity — and that is not caution; that’s constraint.
Succession Is Strategy
Top organizations treat hiring as an investment in future capability, not as a reaction to today’s workload. They understand that strategic hiring — building the next generation of leaders before they are desperately needed — is what sustains long-term growth.
When you have strong succession systems in place, hiring decisions become easier. You already know where your internal talent gaps are, which roles need reinforcement, and what skills will be critical for the next phase of growth.
That is not caution — that’s clarity.
Who’s Hiring and Why
To prove the point – even in economic uncertainty, the world’s best-run companies are expanding their teams. They are not waiting for conditions to stabilize; they are hiring for skill, scale, and succession.
Nestlé is steadily adding manufacturing, production, and operations supervisors across their U.S. plants. They are hiring process engineers, equipment specialists, and plant leaders to strengthen production reliability and ensure quality control.
Lesson: This is not panic hiring. It is succession planning at the production level. When the next shift of leaders and technicians are trained before they are needed, the system thrives.
With roughly 7,000 open positions, Kroger is hiring across operations, logistics, and supply chain management. The grocery giant is not waiting for a better economy. They are ensuring they have the people to keep shelves stocked, trucks moving, and customers served.
Lesson: Hiring to sustain operations is hiring for survival. Waiting for certainty is how stores or even entire organizations go dark.
Boeing continues to hire skilled manufacturing talent such as production assemblers, aerospace painters, and engineers even after years of turbulence. They are rebuilding capacity and preparing for the future of aviation.
Lesson: You do not wait to train airplane builders when the orders arrive. You build your bench while you still have runway.
What Smart Leaders Should Do Now
- Audit your bench. Identify where your gaps are in leadership, skill, and innovation.
- Develop internal talent. Train and mentor your next generation of leaders.
- Hire strategically. Bring in people who fill gaps and expand capacity, not just maintain the status quo.
- Plan for succession. Every key role should have a “who comes next” plan — including yours.
The Bottom Line
The U.S. economy remains resilient. The challenge is not economic decline; it is organizational hesitation. Leaders who fail to build strong succession pipelines will face crises of capacity, not recessions.
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